AB 32 Scoping Plan

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed the AB 32 Scoping Plan Thursday (press release; LA Times).

AB 32 is California's landmark 2006 law to reduce global warming emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, about 30% from business-as-usual projected for 2020, 15% from today’s levels.
The long-range goal is 80% from 1990 levels by 2050.

The largest two sectors of greenhouse gas emissions (left) are transportation — 38% — and electricity generation — 23%.

(click to enlarge)

This timeline shows CARB's first milestones in 2007; developing the high-level Scoping Plan over the last year; and the upcoming detailed rulemaking through 2011 to implement it.

Following is the overview of how the Scoping Plan expects to reduce emissions.



Recommended Reduction Measures — Counted Towards 2020 Target (MMTCO₂E*)

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ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS FROM CAP AND TRADE PROGRAM AND COMPLEMENTARY MEASURES — 146.7

California Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards — 31.7
Energy Efficiency — 26.3
Renewables Portfolio Standard (33% by 2020) — 21.3
Low Carbon Fuel Standard — 15
Regional Transportation-Related GHG Targets — 5
Vehicle Efficiency Measures — 4.5
Goods Movement — 3.7
Million Solar Roofs — 2.1
Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicles — 1.4
High Speed Rail — 1.0
Industrial Measures (cap-and-trade sources) — 0.3
Additional Reductions Necessary to Achieve the Cap — 34.4

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ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS FROM UNCAPPED SOURCES — 27.3

High Global Warming Potential Gas Measures — 20.2
Sustainable Forests — 5.0
Industrial Measures (non-cap and trade sources) — 1.1
Recycling and Waste (landfill methane capture) — 1.0

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TOTAL REDUCTIONS COUNTED TOWARDS 2020 TARGET — 174

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*Million Metric Tons of CO₂ Equivalent emissions. Source (PDF), page 2, update to Proposed Scoping Plan (PDF), Table 2, page 17 (PDF page 37). Charts source (PDF).


CARB Chairman Mary Nichols (far left) and board members Barbara Riordan and Dr. Daniel Sperling at the December 2007 meeting in El Monte that set the 2020 emissions limit at 427 MMTCO₂E.

CARB's senior staff, led by Chuck Shulock (far left), at a July public workshop during development of the Scoping Plan.

Dr. Steven Chu

Another to bookmark: Dr. Steven Chu's presentation on climate change impacts, energy efficiency, and advanced renewable energy technologies — photovoltaics and biofuel grasses — at the National Energy Summit in Nevada last summer demonstrates what an excellent choice he is to be Obama's Energy Secretary (via Gristmill).

Presidents, morphed

Too good not to bookmark here (via Huffington Post), by someone a lot more skilled than I was at morphing Bush to Palin.

It drew me into their faces, these men whose names we've heard of but really know so little about.

First two Measure R rail projects

Measure R has officially passed with a final count of 67.93% YES!

Let's look at the next steps for the first two rail projects it will fund, Expo Line Phase 2 to Santa Monica and the Gold Line Foothill Extension to Azusa, construction potentially beginning on both in 2010 (click maps to enlarge; Expo, Foothill PDF sources).

Updated with the latest Expo Authority Board reports their schedule ahead is:

• January/February 2009 - Public Hearings on Draft EIR
• March/April 2009 - Board Adopts LPA
• October 2009 - Final EIR
• 2010 - Begin construction
• 2014-15 - Revenue Service

And an email from the Metro Gold Line Foothill Extension Construction Authority listed these target dates for the Gold Line Phase 2A (Pasadena to Azusa):

• November 2009 - Commencement of the design / build procurement process for both the Santa Anita Aerial Structure and the Foothill Extension Phase 2A Alignment.
• August 2010 - Groundbreaking for Santa Anita Aerial Structure
• February 2011 - Groundbreaking for Foothill Extension Phase 2A
• December 2013 - Phase 2A Revenue Service