3. Alternatives to Driving

Livable communities with better transportation choices including transit and opportunities for bicycling and walking reduce the need to drive.


Los Angeles' Measure R and "30/10" – now "America Fast Forward" – will expand our transit network, including the Wilshire subway to Westwood (above).

Grid-connected electric transit – streetcars, light and heavy rail, and electric trolleybuses are quiet, energy-efficient, and proven. As Gilbert and Perl note, "Electricity is the ideal transport fuel for an uncertain future. Unlike other alternative energy transition paths for transport, only electric mobility can move people and goods using a wide range of energy sources."


New battery electric buses being tested on Foothill Transit may provide a good alternative to diesel and natural gas powered transit buses (Proterra photo; also MetroRiderLA). See George Karbowski's SCAQMD presentation (3 MB PDF) for technical details.


"Complete Streets" make communities more livable with inviting places to walk and bike, instead of driving (Charles Gandy, City of Long Beach image).


Urban parks importantly balance higher-density residential.


Ridesharing (via smart-phone apps) may be the fastest adjustment for an oil shock.


Intercity high speed rail will replace oil used by long-distance driving and intrastate plane flights (CHSRA image).


Moving freight to rail is much more efficient than trucks, and railroads can be electrified to become entirely oil-free.

NEXT: 4. Electric Vehicles BACK: 2. Global Warming

4. Electric Vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles, now beginning to be available (such as the battery-electric Nissan Leaf, above, and plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt), are the most feasible alternative to oil-powered cars.


Vehicle fuel efficiency helps, but cannot get us off oil. EPA-NHTSA rulemaking – in conjunction with California ARB – is beginning for 2017-2025. A range of 3-6% annual improvement would result in 47-62 mpg in 2025, compared with 34.1 mpg in 2016 and 27.5 mpg of the old (1990-2010) CAFE.

In comparison, a 2004-9 Toyota Prius midsize car was rated at 46 mpg. A fleet averaging that would cut U.S. gasoline use in half and U.S. oil use by 1/4.

Cartoon (c) by Steve Nease, used with permission


Most U.S. personal trips are by car (U.S. Census, SF-3, QT-P23), although less so in dense cities with good public transit like San Francisco, where only 41% drove alone, 31% rode transit, and 9% walked – a strong reason to oppose new sprawl development.


Fifty percent of drivers travel less than 25 miles per day (EPRI PDF). There is ample off-peak grid capacity today for overnight charging, and vehicle batteries can become distributed storage for demand peaks and renewable supply.


From renewable solar, wind, and geothermal power, the core of our clean energy, green jobs economic future.


But even on U.S. average-mix electricity Argonne National Lab's June 2010 "Well-to-Wheels Analysis ..." documented that plug-ins have lower GHG emissions than equivalent ICE gasoline cars, about the same on a coal-intensive mix, and of course much better with renewables (Figure ES-1, page 3).

See also Michael Brune's Sierra Club blogs 10/6/10 and 3/10/11; California ARB on zero Emission Vehicles, advocate Plug In America, Top 11 Electric Car Myths, and lithium availability.


We will need to plan for charging stations in apartment garages, public street parkways, and retail and commercial locations.


Biofuels, conversely, fail the key criteria of scalability, net energy, and external impacts.

Ethanol from corn uses about as much fossil-fuel energy to grow and make as it yields. It consumes water and fertilizer and competes with food production. Ethanol from sugar cane in Brazil is more sustainable, but not scalable to replace any large portion of oil.

Cellulosic ethanol is not in large-scale production, and has poor net energy due to transporting biomass and distilling the alcohol.

Biodiesel from used french fry oil sounds great, but there's not very much used french fry oil! The most productive oil crops are palm oil and soybeans. Their expanded production threatens rainforest land, hardly a benefit to global warming emissions.

See also Robert Rapier on The Palm Oil Conundrum and Five Challenges of Next-Generation Biofuels.


Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not source. It is mostly created from natural gas today, just another fossil fuel.

Even if electrolyzed from renewable electricity, it is less efficient to make, compress, and run a fuel cell on hydrogen than to just charge a battery (page 5, Table 2 in Boschert).

We need a solution now, but fuel cell vehicles are extremely expensive, plus there is no hydrogen fueling infrastructure.

BACK: 3. Alternatives to Driving

Move LA, part 1

This is a web version of my presentation at Move LA's Transportation Conversation II, an environmental perspective on Los Angeles transportation.

The starting point always is our awful traffic.


Second are the impacts of our oil dependence. The U.S. imports 2/3 of what we use. U.S. production peaked in 1970 - despite all the new production in Alaska - and world production's high point was 2005 (US EIA data).


If one imagined what a divine message might be on the eve of Senate debate about national energy policy, it's hard to imagine a bigger one than the gulf oil catastrophe right now (US Coast Guard photo).


Third is Global Warming, documented here by continuing rise in world temperatures (NASA chart).

(Click any image to enlarge)


Transportation and electricity generation are over half the total greenhouse gas emissions (CARB AB 32 Scoping Plan data).


California's AB 32 goal is to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (more on AB 32 Scoping Plan).


The first solution is simple efficiency: if every car got the mileage of today's Prius, the U.S. would use half as much gasoline, one fourth less oil, as vividly illustrated in this cartoon by Steve Nease (used with permission).


The most cost-effective and scalable sources of renewable energy are wind ...


... and solar.


So sustainable transportation must transition to electricity. Measure R funding includes extending the electric Wilshire subway ...

(continue to part 2)

Move LA, part 2

(continued from part 1)

... and expanding L.A.'s light rail network.


We seek cities' use of local return funds for bicycle and pedestrian improvements, as the City of Los Angeles just approved 10% for.


This map from The Transit Coalition suggests a number of rail corridors beyond the Measure R map. I'd highlight (1) extending the Crenshaw line from the Expo line up to Hollywood and (2) north south corridors from Westwood to LAX along Lincoln and/or the 405.


California High Speed Rail is important to Los Angeles, that will replace many intra-state plane flights and long car drives with electric trains (earlier post on Prop. 1A; California High Speed Rail Blog).


A few cities like San Francisco still have electric trolley buses.


The new company Proterra will be testing battery-electric buses that fast-charge at the end of their routes on Foothill Transit this year.


Plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles are very important for all the trips that do not fit biking, walking, or transit. The first two major auto company models are the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf, due late this year (EVs and Energy Blog; Plug In America).


Finally, a major benefit of rail transit is enabling effective Transit Oriented Development within walking distance of stations, like here at Del Mar in Pasadena on the Gold Line. But will it live up to Smart Growth or just be auto-oriented "dumb density"?


Livable streets that encourage walking to neighborhood shops are very important. These two examples from Portland's Pearl District show the kind of amenities that make you feel at home.


Parks and open space for kids and older people are very important to balance increased density.

The Solution to ...

The right energy plan addresses all of Global Warming, Peak Oil, Energy Independence (2/3 of U.S. oil is imported), and Economic Stimulus spending (investing in green jobs and future economic sustainability).

Here's my summary in four images (click to enlarge).

Nearly half of U.S. oil is used for gasoline, and over half of California's global warming emissions come from passenger vehicles and electricity generation.

The greatest leverage is Efficiency in transportation and buildings' energy use.

The most practical renewable energy in large quantities is electricity from solar, wind, and geothermal.

The most sustainable transportation is electric - EVs and plug-in hybrids, transit, passenger and freight rail.

There is a growing consensus around these main policies, as recently noted by Adam Stein in Gristmill and the Post Carbon Institute's The Real New Deal.

Sources:
World Oil Production - ASPO Newsletter and OilPoster.org
Crude Oil and Products' sources - U.S. EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, Tables 4, 38
Oil Uses - U.S. EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, Table 4
Greenhouse Gas Emissions - California Air Resources Board

New Metro Long Range Transportation Plan

The new post-Measure R staff-proposed Long Range Transportation Plan was noted by the LA Times' Steve Hymon and is available for download from the Planning & Programming Committee agenda here (PDF).

Here is the Recommended list of Transit Corridor projects (first page of Attachment B):

Transit Corridors -- $ Millions (YoE) -- Open Year (FY)

Metro Gold Line Eastside Light Rail Transit (LRT) -- 899 -- 2010
Exposition LRT Phase I: 7th Street Metro Center to Culver City -- 862 -- 2011
San Fernando Valley North-South Metro Orange Line Canoga Extension (R) -- 223 -- 2013
San Fernando Valley East North-South Rapidways (R) -- 100 -- 2013
Exposition LRT Phase II: Culver City to Santa Monica (R) -- 1,646 -- 2015
Wilshire Boulevard Bus Rapid Transitway -- 124 -- 2015
Metro Gold Line Foothill LRT Extension (6)(R) -- 905 -- 2017
Metro Green Line LRT Extension to LAX/Crenshaw Corridor: Segment 1 - 1 mile -- 443 -- 2018
Metro Green Line LRT Extension to LAX (R): Segment 2 -- 300 -- 2018-2022 (depending on LAX contribution)
Regional Connector (R) -- 1,158 -- 2018
Westside Subway Extension to Westwood (R):
Segment 1 to La Cienega -- 2,350 -- 2019
Segment 2 to Century City -- 2,597 -- 2026
Segment 3 to Westwood -- 1,497 -- 2032
Crenshaw Corridor (3)(R): Segment 2 (mode is TBD) -- 2,004 -- 2029
Metro Green Line LRT Extension: Redondo Beach to South Bay Corridor (R) -- 570 -- 2035
Metro Gold Line Eastside LRT Extension (R) -- 2,845 -- 2037
San Fernando Valley 1-405 Corridor Connection (R) (mode is TBD) -- 2,420(8) -- 2038
West Santa Ana Branch ROW Corridor (R) -- 405(8) -- As additional funds become available

(R) Projects included in Measure R
(3) Technology to be determinted; cost assumes LRT
(6) Measure R funds estimated to fund segment to approximately Glendora, including yard and vehicles
(8) Measure R contribution only

Tier 1: Currently Under Planning Study/Environmentally Cleared/Route Refinement Study/Previously Studied

Burbank/Glendale LRT from LA Union Station to Burbank Metrolink Station
Harbor Subdivision Alternate Rail Technology (ART)
Metro Gold Line Eastside LRT Extension Branch not funded in Recommended Plan
Metro Gold Line Foothill LRT Extension (beyond segment funded by Measure R)
Metro Green Line LRT Extension between Norwalk Station and Norwalk Metrolink Station (Elevated or Underground Light Rail)
Westside Subway Extension (beyond segment funded by Measure R)

Tier 2: Candidates for Further Project Definition

Metro Green Line LRT Extension between South Bay Galleria and Pacific Coast Highway Harbor Transitway Station
Metro Green Line LRT Extension from LAX to Expo Santa Monica Station
Metro Red Line Extension from North Hollywood Station to Burbank Airport Metrolink Station
"Silver" Line LRT between Metro Red Line Vermont/Santa Monica Station and City of La Puente
SR-134 Transit Corridor BRT between Metro Red Line North Hollywood Station and Metro Gold Line Del Mar Station
Vermont Corridor Subway
"Yellow" Line LRT between Metro Red Line North Hollywood Station and Regional Connector

First two Measure R rail projects

Measure R has officially passed with a final count of 67.93% YES!

Let's look at the next steps for the first two rail projects it will fund, Expo Line Phase 2 to Santa Monica and the Gold Line Foothill Extension to Azusa, construction potentially beginning on both in 2010 (click maps to enlarge; Expo, Foothill PDF sources).

Updated with the latest Expo Authority Board reports their schedule ahead is:

• January/February 2009 - Public Hearings on Draft EIR
• March/April 2009 - Board Adopts LPA
• October 2009 - Final EIR
• 2010 - Begin construction
• 2014-15 - Revenue Service

And an email from the Metro Gold Line Foothill Extension Construction Authority listed these target dates for the Gold Line Phase 2A (Pasadena to Azusa):

• November 2009 - Commencement of the design / build procurement process for both the Santa Anita Aerial Structure and the Foothill Extension Phase 2A Alignment.
• August 2010 - Groundbreaking for Santa Anita Aerial Structure
• February 2011 - Groundbreaking for Foothill Extension Phase 2A
• December 2013 - Phase 2A Revenue Service

After Measure R passes

Now that we can celebrate Measure R passing (67.65% YES on 11/21/08 provisional vote update), what projects will be built first and how can advocates help?

As specified in Measure R (Metro Map, click to enlarge), the new 1/2-cent sales tax begins collection on July 1, 2009. Its funding breakdown is:

35% new Metro Rail and Bus Rapid Transit capital
3% Metrolink commuter rail capital
2% Metro Rail capital improvements to existing lines
5% Rail Operations
20% Bus Operations
20% Highway Capital
15% Local Return for streets, bikeways, pedestrian improvements

The transit projects funded for completion in its first ten years are:

1-A Expo Line phase 2, Culver City to Santa Monica, $925M, starting construction 2010, opening FY 2013-15
1-F Gold Line Foothill Extension, $735M, starting construction 2010, opening FY 2015-17
1-H Green Line LAX Extension, $200M, FY 2015-28
1-B Crenshaw Corridor, $1,207M, FY 2016-18
1-I S.F. Valley Canoga Corridor BRT, $182M, FY 2016-18
1-J S.F. Valley N-S Corridors BRT, $68.5M, FY 2016-18

Even better, Roger Snoble said on KPCC 11/6/08 that construction of the Foothill Gold Line "is able to move ahead very quickly, right along with Expo" Line phase 2 to Santa Monica in 2010 (21:00), as well as the Green Line to LAX (19:30). He also emphasized, "the ordinance ... has a very clear expenditure plan ... when the project would be expected to be delivered ... the people voted on that schedule ...."

On accelerating the Purple Line Wilshire Subway (1-D Westside Subway Extension, $4,074M, FY 2034-36), the LA Times Bottleneck Blog reported: "During the news conference about Measure R's passage, Metropolitan Transportation Authority chief Roger Snoble said it may now be possible to extend the line to Fairfax Avenue within six or seven years and the line could get to Westwood in 20 years."

The important Regional Connector (1-C) between the Expo/Blue and Gold lines is expected to be competitive for federal funding (estimated $708M match to $160M local), which we hope can advance it from its current FY 2023-25 scheduled completion.

How can advocates help? With funding in place, we can now focus on helping Metro's planning process complete their designs well and move forward to construction. And advocate for cities to fund bicycle and pedestrian projects with their Local Return share.

Also see Ken Alpern's CityWatch column this week and my earlier posts Metro's sales tax would fund... and Sales tax comments for more.

Election success!

Congratulations President-elect Obama! His presidency, combined with Democratic majorities in Congress, will make possible the energy, climate, and transportation policies we need.

For some very moving photos of last night's acceptance speech, see these Grant Park photos from the Chicago Tribune.

Amazingly, Los Angeles County Measure R transportation sales tax sqeaked past its needed 2/3 majority at 67.41% YES (100% reported)!

The LA Times Bottleneck Blog gave a good description of the joyful press conference this morning at Wilshire & Western. Left are two UCLA student campaigners, and lower left are Steve Hymon with Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Metro CEO Roger Snoble (click to enlarge).

Proposition 1A for High Speed Rail finished at 52.2% YES. Now we'll have a lot of work ahead going from funding to completed plans to finished projects.

And the faux-clean-energy Propositions 7 and 10 were strongly defeated, 64.9% and 59.8% NO, respectively (100% reported). Four for four!